The Final Four?
According to Larry Sabato, the Robert Kent Gooch Professor of Politics at the University of Virginia, the 2008 presidential campaign has narrowed to a field of four finalists, two Democrats and two Republicans.
In an article posted today on the Real Clear Politics (RCP) Web site, Dr. Sabato stated: "For the Democrats, the nominee will either be Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama, in that order of probability, and for the Republicans, John McCain or Mitt Romney, with Rudy Giuliani a longshot possibility should he win Florida on January 29. Notice that we said ‘win' -- not second place -- for Giuliani. Unquestioned victory in the Sunshine State is now Rudy's only chance to be taken seriously since he has done miserably in the first five contests and has chosen to campaign almost exclusively of late in Florida."
An RCP poll -- which averages results from LA Times/Bloomberg, AP-Ipsos, CNN, USA Today/Gallup, Reuters/Zogby and Rasmussen polls -- shows Clinton leading Obama 41.7 percent to 33.3 percent among candidates for the Democratic nomination.
And what about John Edwards?
He's well back at 13.2 percent, according to RCP.
Dr. Sabato commented: "After South Carolina, the state of his birth, Edwards will have three choices: (1) Stay in through the primaries, collect delegates under the party's proportional rules, and hope that the Clinton/Obama split is so close that his delegates can make Edwards the kingmaker, with a payoff of the post of Attorney General or another vice-presidential nomination; (2) Drop out before or after February 5, and endorse one of the candidates (surely Obama, given what Edwards has said during the campaign); or (3) Drop out and save his nod for later. Option three is the least likely, since Edwards will quickly become irrelevant. If the second option is chosen, can Edwards actually steer his delegates and voters to Obama? Will Edwards campaign enthusiastically for Obama to enable the transfer? Should Edwards truly prefer Obama, Edwards may conclude that the first option helps both Obama and himself the most. Many of Edwards' white, blue-collar supporters may be more inclined to choose the white female over the black male in a one-on-one match-up, no matter what Edwards says or does for Obama. Splitting the white vote may be Edwards' real favor to Obama."
On the Republican side, the RCP national average poll shows a close race: McCain leading Mike Huckabee 26.5 percent to 19.2 percent, with Romney at 16.2 percent and Giuliani at 12.2 percent.
Despite Huckabee's high standing in the poll, Dr. Sabato had this to say: "With the defeat in South Carolina -- one of Huckabee's best potential states because of the size of the Christian evangelical population -- it has become highly improbable, almost to the vanishing point, that Huckabee will be the GOP nominee, though he will stay in the race and continue to collect delegates through at least February 5. Perhaps intentionally, this can help McCain by draining off evangelical votes that would not likely go to the Arizona senator. Huckabee has been auditioning for vice president for some time, flirting especially with McCain."