BLS + PA = ????
To me, the new Bureau of Labor Statistics projection for the PA profession does not add up.
The BLS forecasts a 27% increase in PA jobs from 2006 to 2016 and projects 83,000 PA jobs in 2016.
That's only about 15,000 more PA jobs eight years from now than there are practicing PAs today--slightly more than 68,000 in clinical practice in the United States on Jan. 1, 2008, according to the AAPA.
With more than 4,500 new PAs graduating from school every year, the profession will surpass 83,000 PAs long before 2016, even with retirements and people leaving the profession, won't it?
The number of practicing PAs grew more than 22,000 in the last five years alone, according to the AAPA, from about 46,000 on Jan. 1, 2003, to an estimated 68,000 this month.
If there are only 83,000 PA jobs in 2016, that's going to be a problem for the profession. But I can't see that happening. I don't see any signs of a slowdown yet in the PA market, or the NP market, for that matter.
What am I missing?