Many More New PA Programs in Development

If you look at the numbers since 1999 it breaks down like this:

2000 - 6

2001 - 4

2002 - 2

2003 - 1

2004 - 2

2005 - 3

2006 - 0

2007 - 5

2008 - 2 (so far)

So from my point of view 6 is within the expected range that you would see for new programs (especially considering these are proposed as opposed to actual.

If you look back before 91, you see a lot of programs accredited in 72 and 73 (when accreditation was first offered) then a period of between 1 and 6 per year until 1980 when there was only one program until 1990.

From my point of view the limiting factor for starting new PA programs has traditionally been lack of faculty (particularly experience PDs). There is a rump of experienced faculty that were hired in the expansion in 96-99 that now have experience to run PA programs. Theoretically this would support another round of expansion similar to what was seen at that time. However, I believe that the limiting factors now are relative saturation in some areas and lack of clinical sites.

David Carpenter, PA-C

Thanks for commenting, David, but I can't entirely agree. The average is not really relevant because of the boom-plateau nature of PA program growth. There hasn't been an era of slow steady growth (four programs a year) - at least since 1991, which is as far as the linked ARC-PA chart goes back. (Before that, I don't know the situation.) There's a flat period (1991-1995), followed by a boom (1996-2001), followed by a flat period (2002-2006). And then this current sudden increase again. I'm not saying look for a reply of 1996-2001, but I am saying that we are seeing a significant change from 2002-2006.

Its not really that there is any bump, but that growth has returned to its natural level. The average number of PA programs accredited per year is around 4. However the  4 year period from 1996 to 1999 saw 55 new programs. After this period the profession returned to the more normal rate. The 96-99 period was proceeded by an eight year period (83-90) when there were no new programs (presumably due to predictions of oversupply of providers). This is a pretty classic supply demand curve.